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Oct 23, 2026 - Can Australia Double Its Wind Power by 2040?



Australia`s coal plants are retiring and wind is meant to fill the evening gap. So why are so few new wind farms getting built?
In this video, Frances, market analyst at Modo Energy Australia, asks whether the numbers stack up for building more wind in Australia`s National Electricity Market (NEM).
Why does Australia need more wind power?
Coal has done the heavy lifting in the NEM for decades, but those plants are gradually retiring while demand keeps growing. Solar covers the middle of the day, but wind in Australia tends to produce more in the evening and overnight, filling the gap when the sun goes down.
How much wind will Australia build?
Wind is already the NEM`s biggest source of large-scale renewable power. In Modo Energy`s forecast, wind capacity doubles by 2040, but that growth doesn`t accelerate until the 2030s.
Why is new wind struggling to get built?
Over the past year, wind earned about $50 per megawatt hour selling into the market, less than half of what a new wind site needs to secure financing. Building a wind farm has become almost 50% more expensive in the past four years, as turbine costs recover from Covid and supply chain issues, labour costs climb and projects move further into regional areas.
Why are wind farm revenues falling?
Wind farms sell their power into the market, so falling electricity prices cut what they earn. Out-of-market contracts that guarantee a fixed price still follow that market down. Clean energy credits, which drove Australia`s first wave of wind farms, have dropped from more than $50 per megawatt hour to less than $3.
How will Australia double its wind capacity by 2040?
Costs are turning a corner. The CSIRO`s GenCost report shows wind costs falling again, and by 2035 the price a new wind farm needs to secure financing falls from about $124 per megawatt hour to less than $100. On the revenue side, coal closures leave gaps in the evening and overnight when wind produces most, so less competition means higher prices in those hours.
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